FIBA World Cup 2023 Preview
Only a few days are left until FIBA World Cup will
start in Indonesia, Japan, and the Philippines. Let's look at what we can
expect from this tournament!
Without many NBA stars
This year will be different from last year's EuroBasket because many stars won't be playing. Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kristaps Porzingis, Domantas Sabonis, and Jamal Murray are just a few of the biggest stars that are going to miss the tournament. Of course, we can also add the most prominent American stars but that's a different story because their national team already announced the 12-man roster while previously mentioned players can't play because of injuries.
It's not like we can say that the World Cup will be without any stars. Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lauri Markkanen, Brandon Ingram, Jalen Brunson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, and Karl Anthony-Towns are very entertaining to watch.
Group stage
32 teams are divided into 8 different groups. We love "death groups" because we know that at least one good team won't make it to the next round. This time, the "death group" can be described as group E with Germany, Japan, Australia and Finland. Group H with Canada, France, Latvia and Lebanon can also be labeled as a "death group" but without Porzingis, the Latvians aren't seen as a big threat but I wouldn't write them off yet.
The two best teams of each group will qualify for the next round and they will get already in the TOP16 where they are going to merge together with their neighbor group (A with B, C with D, etc.). In this round, two more games will be played and then the two best will qualify for the quarterfinals. The winner in the playoffs is decided in one game.
Teams that were in the bottom 2 in the 1st round will also play two more games with their neighbor group two worst. After that, teams will be placed from 17 to 32 based on their results and they will fly home. These two extra games are necessary to finalize standings because places in the Olympic qualifier are given based on standings.
Favorites
It's no surprise that the USA is the favorite to win it all. Five years ago, they finished just in the 7th place which is their all-time worst result. France, Australia, Canada, Serbia, Spain, and Slovenia are the next favorites by bookmakers.
As a "dark horse," I would mention Germany. They already played very well last year in the EuroBasket. One more year as a professional for Franz Wagner is only an advantage, and his brother Mo Wagner will also help the national team. Reaching finals could be a very long shot but quarterfinal or even semi wouldn't surprise me. Germany is a part of group E but Finland is the worst team between them, Australia and Germany.
Another team that could surprise is Latvia. Yes, they are without Kristaps Porzingis but they have a very deep roster with good players. I assume that they will beat Lebanon in the 1st match and they need to beat France or Canada to advance. For the Latvians, it would be easier to beat Canada but it would still be a big surprise. While Canada's roster is good, they are inexperienced and FIBA rules could mess up some things.
Don't rule out Slovenia. After disappointing EuroBasket last year, Luka Doncic could be very motivated and it looks like he's in good shape. Underachiever could be Spain. They don't have a very tough group but, in the playoffs, I wouldn't be surprised if they lose already in the 1st round.
Predictions
Teams that will be in the TOP2 in each group after the 1st round:
A: Italy, Dominican Republic
B: Serbia, Puerto Rico
C: USA, Greece
D: Lithuania, Montenegro
E: Australia, Germany
F: Slovenia, Georgia
G: Spain, Brazil
H: France, Canada
Finalists: USA vs. Slovenia
Champion: USA
MVP: Jalen Brunson